November 19, 2018
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams - On total this is the highest total since 1986. I’d take the under if pressed because that is where the value is but these are two very efficient offenses. The problem for the over is that they both have to be uber efficent and that’s a tall task. If I had to make a bet I would tease these number to KC +8.5 and over 55. If I had to pick a side I suggest Rams -2/2.5.
December 3, 2018
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles - These are teams moving in opposite directions. The strength of Redskins defense is the run, which isn’t where the Eagles try to make their mark. They are a passing offense and that is Redskins weakness. But both teams are inefficient offensively, so I would also lean the under. You could consider teasing it to Skins +12, which would tease it past two key numbers in 7 and 10, and over 39. In Skins favor is Thompson coming back, he was a difference maker when healthy.
December 13, 2018
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs - If you want a straight bet, I would go Chargers +3 (3.5 if you can get it) or under 54. A lot of unknown variables here with the RB situations so unsettled. The Chiefs run defense is their weakness, I think the Chiefs scheme to stop Rivers and the pass anyway with Gordon and Eckler out. So I think Chargers try to run with Jackson, who I think has skill and it means longer possessions/drives with less points. I think San Diego will be able to score and their defense is on par with Ravens and Arizona who held KC to around 26 at home. I think LAC keeps them around that number. KC’s defense is no slouch either, so I have trouble seeing LAC getting around the same number, so there’s value in that 54 number. If you don’t mind a little extra vig, you could tease that to SD +9/under 60. Early sharp money was on SD +3.5, on the total late money seems to be coming in on under 54.