Beat Sports BettingHot College Football And The Feds

Hot College Football And The Feds

admin — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 10:00:20 +0000

Congress found time to have hearings on steroid use in Major League Baseball, and Obama has spent considerable federal time and effort trying to get college football’s Bowl Championship Series (BCS) to do as he wants. He went so far as to involve the Justice Department to intimidate the NCAA into “changing” the BCS system. while the President is concentrating on the burning BCS issue, hopefully the NCAA and Major League Baseball can work on the economy, wars, deficit spending and the unemployment rate.

Clearly, college football is much too important in the South to involve the federal government. Like most things that thrive and that people enjoy, there is little-to-no federal government involvement in college football.

The Southeastern Conference has won the national title six years in a row now, and before that the national champion was the University of Texas. this has troubled Obama, spurring him into using the powers of his federal government to start an investigation. I’d prefer powerhouses like Bama drop Troy and Kent State from their schedules to leave room for a playoff, but it certainly is not a Federal issue. It is not even worth starting a bar fight over.

If Obama wants to intervene in college football, he may want to look into stationing Navy SEALs on lifeguard stands in the Penn State football team showers.

Obama has enough issues in the South. The only reason Obama got 38% of the vote in 2008 in Alabama was that many voters confused his name on the ballot for “Go Bama.”

It must give great comfort to the red states of the South that Obama, an Ivy Leaguer admitted under affirmative action, is on the case. somehow, liberals reason that a student like Obama can get into Columbia University with a huge discount on his SAT score and have his schooling paid for, but when a kid from Odessa, Texas gets a chance to go to college at the University of Texas and play football, he must have been exploited. at least the young man playing football has a source of pride because he is helping to create revenues for his university in the form of ticket sales to fund his scholarship. there was no one paying Columbia to watch Obama study political science. even the unions did not fund him back then.

Obama’s Justice Department has kicked around many legal strategies on how to gain the control of the NCAA football system that the federal government currently does not have. DOJ is well-versed in the Interstate Commerce Clause of the Constitution, since that is its justification for the individual mandate provision of Obamacare. maybe now it could say the University of Alabama, in recruiting Flint, Michigan’s Heisman Trophy-winning running back Mark Ingram, violated laws against kidnapping, smuggling or transporting a minor across state lines for the purpose of commerce. we have so many laws in this country; there has to be one the Department of Justice can contort into fitting its goal.

If Obama had his way with “equity” in college football, he could work toward his dream of “fairness” so that every team in the country would have a record of 6 and 6. He would love that, because then he would get to decide the national champion. In Obama’s view, since he is granted the right under our Constitution to dismiss the head of General Motors, Inc., he should certainly have the right to fire the offensive coordinator at LSU.

Is it fair that Swarthmore College has never had a national football championship? Don’t the Fighting Bitter Birkenstocks of Wellesley College deserve a title?

The Supreme Court had sense enough not to hear the University of South Carolina vs. the University of Southern California lawsuit to decide which school gets to have the SC logo. Since there are no Protestants left on the Supreme Court, no one on the court sees a college football dispute for what it is in the South — a freedom of religion issue.

It is clearly stated in Southern Bibles, that SEC football is God, and you are to have no other Gods before it. Not even NASCAR.

Southerners really do not mind that Obama rarely attends church, but the fact that he has not been to a college football game in the South is troubling.

Ron Hart, a libertarian syndicated op-ed humorist, award-winning author and TV/radio commentator can be reached at Ron@RonaldHart.com or visit www.RonaldHart.com

The Giants battled all game long against one of the league’s top defenses in their 20-17 win at San Francisco while the Patriots found themselves very fortunate to come out with a 23-20 home victory over the Ravens. The Giants have had the most rapid increase in their power rating the last five weeks.

Despite the game being on a key number right now, Kornegay said his booking strategy for a game of this magnitude will be vastly different from any of the playoff or regular season games played this season.

"We’re not going to settle into a number right now," said Kornegay. "We’ll probably have a larger extension to risk at a certain number as we get closer to the game, but early on we’ll let the money move us quicker until we find what the right number is whether that means 3, 2½ or 3½."

Three is a dangerous number to play with and most sports books are probably hoping the game runs one way or another to avoid the most popular margin of victory in pro football. The five year average of all NFL games shows 14.6% landing on 3, not including both of Sunday’s Championships which were both won by 3-point margins.

Should the sports books find themselves jumping back and forth around 3 and the favored team happened to win by that number, it’ll be a rough decision for the house.

The hope for most sports books is that the "what we saw last" mentality wears off and that favored team gets back up to -3½, maybe even -4 before the massive onslaught of action begins on the final weekend.

It was just a year ago when we saw a steady -3 last throughout with the favored Packers beating the Steelers 31-25. Before that, the last -3 we saw in the Super Bowl was the Ravens beating the Giants 34-7 after the 2001 season.

Regardless of what the number settles on, Kornegay expects handle to be great for this game.

"with these two teams, I would expect the handle to match last season’s ($87 million)," said Kornegay.

Last year’s Super Bowl saw a net win of only $724,176 across the entire state for a low 0.8% that left many major sports books as losers for the day, something they hope doesn’t reoccur this season.

They definitely don’t want a repeat the 2008 Super Bowl that saw the Giants win straight-up as 12-point underdogs against the Patriots. That was the worst Super Bowl in Nevada history with a loss of $2.57 million (-2.8%).

That Super Bowl loss was spurred by the majority of small money piling up on a deflated money-line price with the underdog. despite getting no value on the money-line, bettors still lined up to bet the Giants to win straight-up and the books couldn’t make up to the 3-to-1 payouts.

This is the only game of the year where sharp money means very little. The movement we saw Sunday night when the line was first posted was dictated by large money with lower limits. But once the days start counting down to Feb. 5, all the little $20 bets will account for much more than a single $20,000 wager from a wise guy.

The all-time record for Super Bowl handle was in 2006 when a booming economy sent $94.5 million in wagers through Nevada sports book windows. The Steelers-Seahawks game didn’t provide the most glamorous matchup in Super Bowl history, but cash was flowing through Vegas from all neighborhoods at that time like never before.

If Nevada is able to match last year’s great Packers-Steelers matchup as Kornegay says is possible, than it should be considered a success.

Now the hard part is winning and trying to match the all-time win record, which was in 2005 when books held 17% with $15.4 million in win. That was a bookmakers dream where the favored Patriots (-7) won 24-21, but didn’t cover against the Eagles and the game stayed UNDER (46 ½).

Books do Well

Between banking conference future wagers and beginning Sunday with the best possible scenario in the AFC Championship game, the Las Vegas sports books did well.

It was a bookmaker’s dream with the favored Patriots (-7) winning 23-20, but not covering against the Ravens. The dream got even better when the game stayed UNDER the total (49).

There was still some leftover risk going into the late game and the Giants having the edge from public play made it the worst possible decision. however, with the game staying UNDER the total (41), it made the best out of a possible bad situation.

"We did very well in the early games, but the bettors got some of it back late with the Giants," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. "It didn’t help matters that 7-point teaser went 8-0 on the day and 6-point teasers went 7-1."

Imagine that, if you had just gone to the betting window and said let me tease every side and total 7-points, you would have walked away a winner as every game stayed within the boundaries of the spread.

Last season in the championship round, teasers were 7-1, which may be why some sports books don’t offer teasers in the playoffs.

I spent Sunday afternoon watching and betting the games at the South Point sports book and my jaw dropped when I noticed they had 12 windows exclusively open for sports betting.

It’s the only all sports book in town that has a race book with each in it’s own separate part of the casino, which makes it nice, but that type of service in this era of companies squeezing every cent in their labor force left me in amazement.

Most other sports books in town have had to downsize their labor force considerably. From an economic standpoint, it’s understandable on their end because the labor expense is really the only expenditure they can have a real grip on.

Most of you may have noticed more and more race and sports books have gone to having multi-task windows that take both pari-mutual horse and sports wagers. That all works nice when the time of day is slow, but at key moments such as when a race is going off and games are kicking or tipping off simultaneously, both race and sports bettors sometimes get shut out.

It’s easy for the book to say, "You’ve had all day to bet this race or that game," but at some point a depleted race and sports book staff – which is the case almost everywhere in town – should have cause for concern by upper management who rarely see those shut out moments.

The small percentage of guests who call are brushed off as constant complainers. those who don’t complain just choose to go elsewhere and are never heard from again.

This is why a tip of the cap and a salute goes out to Bert Osborne and his staff for never getting anyone shut out and for Michael Gaughan ensuring that a lack of labor will never cost him a guest.

It’s Super at Clarion

Last season Brian Blessing and Sports Book Radio hosted a Super Bowl party at the NASCAR Café that people are still talking about a year later. It was awesome!

NASCAR Café is now closed, but the manager of those great events, Randy Goldich, has moved on to the Clarion on Convention Center Drive and he’s providing an even better party this year.

For a mere $60, your entry includes an open bar from 1 p.m. on and non-stop food such as the all-you-can-eat ribs, beef, wings, hot dogs and more. Everyone will be given a free commemorative t-shirt upon entry and they’ll be giving away all kinds of prizes throughout the game such as a 42" plasma TV.

The entire party will be taking place inside the Star Theatre at the Clarion. so go hang out with Brian and Randy and let them show you a great time on Super Bowl Sunday, or as they have to call it, "The Big Game Bash."

That way the NFL lawyers don’t get angry with them. To make reservations, call Randy at (702) 238-8539.

When William Hill stepped foot onto U.S. soil, you knew it wouldn’t be very long until their main rival in the U.K., Ladbrokes, would make a some kind of counter move.

Last week Ladbrokes made that move by purchasing 65% of Stadium Technologies, a Las Vegas based software company that supplies several Nevada sports books with their product, including a few of the soon-to-be William Hill sports books.

William Hill purchased American Wagering, which operates the Leroy’s chain of books, and Cal-Neva sports books for $39 million last April. Shortly after, William Hill also bought the Brandywine operation for $15 million, the company that runs the Lucky’s sports books.

Part of the allure with American Wagering is that in addition to getting 72 Leroy’s betting shops, they also get Computerized Bookmaking System (CBS), a subsidiary of American Wagering whose software is operating under contract in the majority of Nevada’s sports books.

The handful of sports books that don’t use CBS are Station Casinos, Golden Nugget, Cantor Gaming, Cal-Neva and Lucky’s sports books, which also includes Delaware.

Rumors are also swirling that a couple of other sports books currently using the CBS system will soon be switching to the Stadium Technologies system.

Station Casinos operates their own in-house betting system, while all the others who don’t use CBS are using Stadium Technologies equipment. this means that several William Hill books will now be serviced by their main competitor, Ladbrokes, in an interesting twist that they’re likely not too excited about.

Meanwhile, Ladbrokes couldn’t be happier. They get their foot into the U.S. market for an initial cost of $3 million compared to the $54 million William Hill paid and can just wait and see how the cards unfold.

Sports may come later than other casino online games, but companies like Cantor, William Hill and Ladbrokes all have had software in place and running effectively in the U.K. in each case, revenues soared through the roof when introduced.

If Irish bookmaker Paddy Power finds a way to get their software here, the possibilities are intriguing

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Column: One Man’s Smart Bet To Win The Super Bowl

admin — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:15:11 +0000

Editor’s note: This marks the debut of Aram “Chemical AT” Tolegian’s weekly column on gambling – sports, horse racing and poker. In addition, Tolegian will blog at www.insidesocal.com/gambling, where readers can interact, enjoy videos and more.

it has been estimated that half of American adults will have some form of gambling action on the Super Bowl, be it squares in an office pool, a legal bet made at a Las Vegas sports book or most likely an illegal bet made with an offshore sports book … or the guy down the block sitting outside the barber shop.

There are no official numbers on something like this, but it’s safe to say that most Americans want some form of action on the game. if to you that means an office pool or betting on the coin flip, then please stop reading this column. But if you’re one of the many who want to read one man’s opinion of the point spread and total, then please read on.

This year’s Super Bowl line has the new England Patriots a three-point favorite over the new York Giants with an over/under of 54 points for the total.

Personally, the Super Bowl is the last in a long string of bets I will make during a football season. Despite all the hype, I see it as just another wager. and in some years, I don’t see it as a wager at all. I’m a hardened football bettor. I’m just as excited to cash a ticket on UNLV-Air Force when nobody’s watching as I am the Super Bowl. Fortunately for you, I just so happen to have an opinion on this year’s game that’s worth backing with my own money.

That doesn’t mean you should follow suit. You should use my thoughts and the thoughts of many others to help form your own opinion. I don’t partake in the enjoyment of your winnings, nor do I feel the pain of your losses. so, do your own due diligence.

Last season, I wrote a Super Bowl prediction column with a gambling focus. I laid out the reasons why, despite the strange line, I liked the Green Bay Packers to cover the number against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

This season, today’s Super Bowl prediction column marks the launch of a new effort to cover the gambling aspect of sports, horse racing and poker.

What better way to start than the Super Bowl?

What will have me involved in this game is the fact that perception does not match reality when it comes to the point spread. when posting a betting line, a sports book must consider which way the public will bet. it must also hang a number that will attract equal action on both sides so that the house can simply hang on to the “juice,” or 10 percent tax it puts on all losing wagers, thus ensuring a nice profit.

The problem with this year’s point spread is that it’s flat wrong. It’s a very dangerous thing to often make such assertions about the numbers the expert oddsmakers set on a game. if you constantly think they are wrong, it will be you that’s cleaned out. But sometimes they are forced to make lines that don’t necessarily reflect the true difference in the two teams, but rather the difference in perception.

The Super Bowl is a game for the masses. Vegas will see many tourists hit town this weekend ready to plunk down cash on the big game just to be a part of the party. Most of these people are not week-to-week bettors. Most of these people couldn’t name any players in the game beside quarterbacks Tom Brady and Eli Manning. oh, some might have seen that cute salsa-dancing receiver from the Giants … Victor Somethingorother. But that’s the extent of their knowledge.

That’s where we step in. the books have to make the Patriots a three-point favorite simply due to the presence of Brady and coach Bill Belichick. the Patriots’ recent history as one of the NFL’s winningest franchises ever since the “Tuck Rule Game” win over the Raiders in 2002 DOES factor in this line because, right or wrong, it’s part of pubic perception.

The reality of the Patriots, however, is that this has been a team in decline ever since the franchise peaked in 2007 when an undefeated regular season ended in defeat to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.

In no year more than this one was the evidence of the Patriots’ decline, especially on defense, so vividly apparent. the Pats own one of the league’s worst defenses (they rank no. 31 in total defense). the Pats are a team that’s been outgained on the season by more than 2,000 yards. the Pats are a team that entered the postseason having played just three playoff teams during the regular season and they went 1-2 in those games.

The Giants are quite the opposite. new York hails from the much stronger NFC and the winning run the Giants have been on over the past month is nothing short of spectacular, and it’s eerily similar to what the Packers did last season.

Since Jan. 1, the Giants have beaten Dallas (a near-playoff team), Atlanta, Green Bay and San Francisco by a combined score of 112-53! it does not get anymore impressive than that.

Meanwhile, the Patriots’ playoff road has been a home win over a Denver Broncos team that left its best game in Mile High Stadium after upsetting the Steelers in the wild-card round, and a win over the Ravens that almost wasn’t if receiver Lee Evans holds on to the ball a second longer.

Not only have the Giants been the hotter team with the better defense, they also beat the Patriots in new England back on Nov. 8. and in that game, the Giants were nowhere close to as healthy as they are now. Not to mention, receiver Victor Cruz had not emerged as the offensive threat he is now.

And now you have the Patriots possibly without top tight end Rob Gronkowski, who if he does play will be far from full strength.

So, again, why exactly are the Patriots favored? Brady and Belichick and the memory of seasons past. That’s your answer. obviously, both coach and QB could be enough for the Pats to win the game, cover the small point spread and nobody would be surprised. But a bet on the Giants gets you the hotter team with a better resume, a quarterback as hot as Brady, the better defense and, oh yeah, an entire field goal in your pocket before the game even starts.

As for the over/under, the natural inclination would be to go “under” such a lofty number. But this is the new era NFL and we’re not about to stand in the way of a rules system that makes quarterbacks un-hittable and receivers untouchable. Pass on the total and make the rooting quite simply a Giants win.

aram.tolegian@sgvn.com

twitter.com/ChemicalAT

Smart’s return key for Crimson Tide defense

Hot Palo Alto Online : Another Hairy Finish For Shp Boys In Soccer Showdown

admin — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 14:30:07 +0000

by Keith Peters Palo Alto Online Sports one thing that Sacred Heart Prep boys’ soccer coach Armando del Rio did not have to do after his team’s match with rival Menlo School on Friday was shave. That’s a good and bad thing for del Rio these days. “I really can’t wait to shave,” he said, “but I don’t want to lose.” Del Rio grew a mustache and beard in November during a male awareness month. When the Gators started winning, he made a bet with his team that he would keep the facial hair until they lost. After a scoreless deadlock with the Knights on Friday in a showdown between the West Bay Athletic League’s no. 1 and 2 teams, the Gators are 9-0-4 overall (6-0-2 in league) and del Rio is still waiting to shave. “It looks horrible,” he said. “But that’s the deal, although ties feel like losses. I might have to change the rules if we tie again.” the defending champion Gators have suffered back-to-back ties, first with King’s Academy and then Menlo. Despite that, they remain atop the WBAL standings with 20 points while Menlo has 15. King’s Academy, which started the day with 13 points, had a chance to take over second place on Friday with 16 — thus tightening the league race. “We played two teams that sat back defensively,” del Rio said of King’s and Menlo. “It’s been effective. Menlo is smart, while being very defensive-minded.” the Knights (4-1-3, 7-1-5), who dropped a 3-0 decision to Sacred Heart Prep in their first meeting, showed a lot of improvement since that defeat and that pleased coach mark Arya. “Any time you go from a 3-0 loss to a 0-0 decision on the road, it’s an improvement,” he said. Still, Menlo needed a victory to have a real chance of overtaking the Gators and challenge for a long-awaited title. “We all know we’re playing for second now,” he said. only the top two WBAL teams will advance to the Central Coast Section Division III playoffs and that’s a very realistic goal for the Knights at this point. Menlo, after all, held Sacred Heart Prep scoreless and few teams have been able to do that over the years since SHP moved from playing in the fall to the winter. Menlo junior goalie Tim Costa was at the top of his game on Friday, making numerous leaping and diving saves throughout the match. in the final three minutes, when Sacred Heart Prep made a final offensive push, Costa stopped a header by Andrew Segre from inside the penalty box and withstood two solid strikes from SHP junior Patrick Tinsley before the final whistle. Costa also stopped shots by Andrew Liotta, Brendan Spillane, Willy Lamb and survived a corner kick, all in the second half. Sacred Heart Prep senior keeper Max Polkinhorne also was solid, needing only a few key stops to keep the Knights off the scoreboard. the most dangerous attempt came in the first half when Beau Baldwin launched a long shot from well outside the penalty box that Polkinhorne timed perfectly, leaping to tip the ball off the crossbar. Jack Redman, Agustin Diaz, Carson Witte and Glenn Baxter were among those who manned the back line for the Knights while Daniel Thaure, Daniel Zdeblick and Nicklaus Salzman were among the defensive standouts for the Gators. SHP did miss sophomore scoring leader Isaac Polkinhorne, who picked up a red card on Wednesday against King’s Academy and had to sit out Friday’s match. in the PAL Bay Division, Menlo-Atherton kept its title hopes alive with a 1-0 victory over host San Mateo on Friday. the Bears (5-0-2, 10-0-3) got a penalty kick from Edgardo Molina in the first half. Teammate Tom Kaheli was fouled in the penalty box to set up the winning score.

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‘lem, Who Do Ya Like?’ Banker Backing Patriots

admin — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 04:45:24 +0000

Ask Lem Banker about the new York Giants and he tells the story of how he won a bet against them in the 1958 NFL Championship Game, when Alan Ameche bowled into the end zone from a yard out in overtime to win it for the Baltimore Colts.

The game, at Yankee Stadium, was a television classic that captivated the country and sparked its love affair with the NFL. if it wasn’t the greatest title game ever, it was surely the most significant.

For the gambler, though, it was just a win.

“I’ve had plenty of good losers, too,” Banker said. “You’re never going to get them all right.”

Maybe not, though Banker once had a streak of 13 straight Super Bowl winners picking against the spread. good thing, because he’s never had a real job and winners pay the bills.

They have over the years, starting when he began booking bets in the family candy store in Union City, N.J., where his father would take the neighborhood action in between dispensing sweets. the son was a good enough basketball player to get scholarship offers, but he became even better at betting sports.

He’ll be 85 this year, and he can still recall the big bets and bad beats of a career spent betting on the fortune of sports. the phone still rings in his sprawling home with people asking him “Lem, who do ya like?”

If he’s not the greatest sports bettor — and many think he is — he’s certainly one of the few who have been around this long. He was especially good at picking winners of big fights, not surprising since he was Sonny Liston’s best friend when the fearsome slugger ruled the heavyweight ranks.

Right now it’s all about football. always is at this time of year, something Banker was reminded of this week when his manicurist gave him her pick for the Super Bowl while filing his nails.

“Everybody has an opinion on the Super Bowl,” Banker said.

That’s good news for this city’s bookmakers, who could do record business in the matchup between the Giants and the new England Patriots. the wiseguys will push their usual six-figure bets across the counter, but it’s the massive flood of money from the squares betting $20 bills that will determine who is favored and by how much on Feb. 5 in Indianapolis.

Some will risk their money because they believe the Giants have a stifling defense or are a team of destiny. others will wager because they like the way Tom Brady does his hair.

The smart ones, though, may look to a man who made his first Super Bowl bet on the first Super Bowl and ask:

So, Lem, who do ya like?

“I’m laying the points and taking new England,” Banker said. “It’s really very simple. To me, Tom Brady is the best quarterback I’ve ever seen — and I’ve seen a lot of them back from when I was a kid and Sid Luckman was playing.”

Some bookies in this gambling city are hoping Banker is right. They’re the unlucky ones who were hit with sizeable wagers late in the regular season when the Giants were struggling and the odds were as high as 100-1 that they would win the Super Bowl.

They won’t be run out of business, of course. Bookies always recover, because there are always more squares with money in their pockets who think they know more than the guys across the counter who have the point-spread thing down to a science. Casinos have lost money on the Super Bowl only once in the last 10 years, taking a beating in 2008 when the Giants — who were 13-point underdogs — beat new England, 17-14.

And this could be one of the highest-bet Super Bowls ever, rivaling the $94.5 million wagered in Nevada — and untold millions elsewhere — on the Steelers-Seahawks game in 2006.

“It’s probably the best matchup there could be,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, a longtime bookmaker who helps run sports books in several casinos for Lucky’s race & Sports Book. “The general public rules these events and they like these teams.”

Banker won’t be wagering that much himself. He never did make huge bets, preferring to make his money on volume instead.

And it’s not like the old days when he had runners in different cities finding the best lines from bookmakers to lay his action on. certainly not like the time he took a Minneapolis bookmaker for $30,000, only to be told he wasn’t going to get paid. He got the money the next day, after asking a friend with, shall we say, connections, to look into the matter.

“There wasn’t a bookmaker dead or alive that I didn’t beat,” Banker said. “I had runners everywhere, in new York, Miami, Chicago, all seeing different numbers. But now it’s all the same numbers everywhere.”

Computers and corporations have replaced pencils and candy store bookmakers. Online betting will dwarf anything even Las Vegas takes in on the game.

It’s enough to make an aging gambler yearn for the days he once knew.

“It’s very, very tough now,” Banker said. “If I had to do it all again, I couldn’t do it. I’d be driving a taxi.”

Tim Dahlberg is a Las Vegas-based national sports columnist for the Associated Press. Write to him at tdahlberg@ap.org or follow him at http://twitter.com/timdahlberg.