Beat Sports BettingSlam Dunk: How High Will Facebook Take Chris Hansen’s Hedge Fund?

Slam Dunk: How High Will Facebook Take Chris Hansen’s Hedge Fund?

admin — Sun, 20 May 2012 12:15:17 +0000

When Facebook goes public Friday morning, one large beneficiary will be San Francisco hedge fund founder Chris Hansen, who is also negotiating with Seattle and King County to obtain $200 million of low-interest and presumably tax-free public financing to build a new professional basketball and hockey arena in the city.

with the Facebook IPO, Hansen's hedge fund, Valiant Capital and its associated entities, stand to make hundreds of millions of dollars for clients and its founder.

Professional money is like professional sports. There's a lot of fun to be had geeking out on the stats. It's a good bet that none of us will never actually be on the court playing in an NBA playoff, but one can still get a thrill from watching it. the same is true for hedge funds on IPO day. Chances are good that none of us will ever make this much money in a single day, but that doesn't mean it's not fun to watch.

the attached Excel file is a Guesstimator. try it yourself. Plug in any Facebook stock price you want and out pops a reasonable estimate of how much money Hansen stands to make. not that anyone outside knows for sure. Hedge funds are barely regulated, but the Securities and Exchange Commission does require basic information to be filed. So it is possible to get a sense of the pieces and an outline of the structures but only Hansen and his lawyers know precisely how they've set everything up.

Generally, hedge funds work this way: managers, usually a General Parter in a Limited Partnership (LP) create a fund and put some of their own money into it. not too much, sometimes less than 5% of the value of the fund. They develop a strategy and seek investors, limited partners, who invest many times more money. it is common for funds to be several hundred million, even a billion dollars' or more in size. later on, a fund may seek to increase its size as it becomes popular or encounters a very large opportunity.

Funds usually charge a flat management fee every year, right off the top. for a fund run by star managers or with access to sought after opportunities, chances are that the annual management fee will be towards the top end of the scale. 2% is common.

the place where vast piles of money is made is "the carry," which is the fund's share of the profit it makes for clients. many funds charge 20%. If one invests a million dollars and it goes to two million, the investor gets $800,000 and the fund would "carry" the other $200,000, for example. It's called "carried interest" — not profits — as part of complex strategies for averting taxes and the details are both arcane and valuable.

because a fund keeps the carry, say 20% of the gain, from all of its clients, this amounts to giant piles of money when an investment appreciates.

in the case of the fund creator's own original investment -— when it grows with the fund, they get to keep the other 80% of the gain on that, too.

So for Chris Hansen, the Guesstimator crunches some basic math, sketchy back-of-the-envelope style, and coughs up some really big numbers: If Facebook shares end Friday near $40 a share, Hansen stands to make hundreds of millions of dollars today. (At $37.50, for instance, we calculate he could earn $208 million.) That's just on his Facebook investment. Keep in mind that the Valiant funds include many other holdings reportedly amounting to billions of dollars. the fund may clip the management fee on all of that. and if the fund does its job and makes money on those investments, it keeps the carry, too.

Hedge funds being hedge funds, the next objective is to find ways to avert taxation on that income. Strategies for that are as numerous as tax attorneys. Some of the popular strategies might include offshoring the money, finding ways to have it classified as capital gains instead of ordinary income, buying up large swath of bonds on which to earn tax-free interest, or even, perhaps, investing in a professional sports team and associated new facilities. and those aren't even the exotic ones.

Today, however, the sport is in watching the Facebook action and running the numbers. how high do you think it will go?

(HK:8) (US:PCCWY), which he controls.

Francis Yeoh, head of construction conglomerate YTL Corp. (JP:1773) (US:YTLCF) and eldest son of its Malaysian billionaire founder, is also building luxury penthouses in the same area, and has likewise taken a stake in a local hotel, according to reports.

Yen tourists to come

by Steve Carley, @stevecarleyWN #WENsport

WORCESTER City manager Carl Heeley is keeping an open mind over possible summer signings as he looks to strengthen his squad.

City are intent on being among the contenders for the Blue Square Bet North play-offs next season following their seventh place finish this term. nine players are already on board for 2012/13, while negotiations remain ongoing with captain Kevin O’Connor.

Heeley is running the rule over potential targets and, along with assistant Matt Gardiner, has held talks with a number of players.

Although bolstering the strike-force is high on the agenda, the City boss is looking at all areas of his squad when it comes to recruitment.

He said: “The priority area is a striker but if players become available in other positions that we feel will improve us we will look to take them.

“The aim is to improve the squad. That’s going to be tough because we did well last season but we are trying to improve it on the same, if not ever so slightly less, funds.

“It’s a hell of a challenge but we are trying and that’s our aim so we will talk to a lot of players and keep an open mind on positions.

“We have met with players but, at this stage, those any good are going to shop around.

“It’s a case of meeting people and talking to them which we are well down the road in doing but I don’t expect anything to come to fruition immediately.”

as well as midfielder O’Connor, winger Greg Mills is another of this season’s squad not yet signed up.

Utility player Tyler Weir, who is also attracting interest from Gloucester City, remains under contract at Hereford United until June 30.

Preakness a rematch between I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister

Discover Qipco 2000 Guineas Odds And Betting Preview: Camelot A Hot Favourite For Opening Classic

admin — Sat, 19 May 2012 19:15:20 +0000

NEWMARKET, UK – On Saturday, the eyes of all British horse racing fans will be glued to Newmarket for the first Classic of the UK flat racing season, as the racecourse hosts the 2000 Guineas Stakes. Europe’s finest three-year-old milers will do battle over the straight Rowley Mile at the home of British racing, with the winner adding his name to a who’s who of racing, including recent winners Sea the Stars and Frankel.

This year’s favourite is Camelot, who hails from Ireland, and is trained by Aidan O’Brien. He will be ridden by the trainer’s son Joseph, and comes to Newmarket with a spotless record, having won both of his juvenile starts, the last being the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy, when he cantered to a good win over a decent field. He looked like a star in the making then, but fresh in people’s minds will be St Nicholas Abbey, who was an equally impressive winner of that race, and who could finish only sixth in the Guineas as a three-year-old.

However, we should not judge Camelot’s chances based on another horse, although both horses are bred to be fully effective at further than a mile. O’Brien has admitted mistakes in the preparation of St Nicholas Abbey, and Camelot will have no such excuses if he is not successful. He is certainly the one to beat, but at a best price of only 7/4 with Sportingbet (bet £4 to make £7 profit), he is not an attractive betting proposition.

The current second favourite for the race is the French raider Abtaal, who finished second in the Prix Djebel on his last start. He was given a very tender ride on that day, but is a top-priced 8/1 with Ladbrokes, while his conqueror in the Djebel, French Fifteen, is available at 10/1 with bet365.

This disparity in prices is partly due to the fact that Abtaal was not given a hard time, but also that Abtaal beat French Fifteen by three lengths when both were juveniles, but French Fifteen was undone by a slow pace that day, while Abtaal had the run of the race. French Fifteen looks to be a more attractive bet than Abtaal at the 10/1 with bet365.

The third placed horse in the Djebel, Hermival, also makes the trip over, and is a top-priced 22/1 with Paddy Power. He was not beaten far at all in that race, and since it was only his second start, he could be open to more improvement than the other two. He should not be left out of calculations.

John Oxx rarely sends horses to England, and when he does, it is usually time to take notice, as he has a tremendous strike rate on these shores. this year, his representative is Born To Sea, who is a half brother to the illustrious Sea the Stars. Born To Sea kicked off his juvenile campaign with a good win in a listed race, before finishing second to the smart Nephrite in a Group 3. however, he was found to have torn muscles when jumping out of the gates, and must be respected for finishing as close as he did.

Born To Sea is much more of a miler than Sea the Stars, and is unlikely to get much further as his brother did, and could be a superstar in the making. He is a best priced 9/1 with Betfred, and looks a good prospect to take Camelot on with.

Trumpet Major was an impressive winner of the Craven Stakes over course and distance last month, and he looked to have come on leaps and bounds since his juvenile days. He did look very good in the Craven, but Ryan Moore suggested that he may lack a gear or two against top rivals over a mile, and that is enough to discourage backers, as he looks a good horse, but not a superstar. He has place claims though, and can be backed at 10/1 with Totesport.

Roger Charlton’s Top Offer, was the subject of significant antepost support, but has since drifted out to a best priced 13/1 with Sportingbet. He has only raced once, in a Newbury maiden, and despite winning convincingly, the race has not worked out well, and there does not seem to be much substance to his form.

Aidan O’Brien’s second representative, Power, is definitely worth a second look, having won four of his six two-year-old starts, including a Group 1 in the National Stakes. He was beaten in two other Group 1s, but was mugged on the line in one, and encountered traffic problems in the Dewhurst when second (Trumpet Major was fifth in that race). while his stablemate Camelot looks a middle-distance horse in the making, Power definitely looks like a miler, and the step up in trip looks very likely to suit.

He is a best priced 14/1 with Ladbrokes, which is a worry since they often have a line on Ballydoyle horses, and Power might not be 100%, but Ladbrokes were top priced about St Nicholas Abbey on the day of the Breeders Cup Turf, and he ran out an impressive winner, so they do get it wrong. Power looks like a decent bet at this stage.

2000 Guineas betting odds

Associated Press reports. Khaled El-Masri, a car salesman of Lebanese descent, has said he was kidnapped while in Macedonia in 2003 before being flown to Afghanistan. There, he says he was subjected to several months of interrogation, during which he was tortured at a clandestine CIA-run prison. The CIA then apparently realized it had taken the wrong man in a case of mistaken identify and dumped him in a remote part of Albania.

El-Masri turned to the court in Strasbourg after previous legal efforts in Germany, Macedonia, and the United States proved unsuccessful. he has sued Macedonia, claiming his fundamental rights to liberty and freedom from torture had been violated, the Irish Times reports. The newspaper says this is the first case heard by the court related to the U.S. rendition program but that additional cases against other countries also allegedly complicit in renditions (including Lithuania and Poland) are expected.

Skopje denies involvement in the alleged rendition, though El-Masri has repeatedly claimed that the country’s police held him for three weeks in a Skopje hotel before handing him over to the CIA, according to Deutsche Welle.

Various media report that El-Masri’s allegations have essentially been confirmed by institutions such as the Council of Europe and the German Bundestag. The Guardian recounts a 2005 press conference during which German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, “The American administration is not denying” its share in El-Masri’s abduction and that it had made a mistake. El-Masri has never received an apology or financial compensation.

2. Diplomatically worded standoff continues between Brussels, Kyiv

Ukraine is bracing for more criticism from the European Union, despite an olive branch extended recently by Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov.

In a 16 may speech to the European Parliament, Azarov admitted that the relationship between the EU and Ukraine is “far from the best it can be.” Azarov extolled Ukraine’s economic progress and denied accusations that Kyiv persecutes its political opponents. “our government has initiated many legal proceedings against corrupt officials. only a small percentage of these have been introduced against the so-called opposition,” he said. Azarov insisted that the health of jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is “under constant attention.”

In a press release, European Parliament President Martin Schulz said Ukraine had agreed to accept EP-appointed doctors to assess Tymoshenko’s health and assist in her treatment. Kyiv and Brussels have also agreed that an unnamed “personality of high international repute” would visit Ukraine to monitor Tymoshenko’s appeal against her conviction on abuse of office charges, which will take place at the end of June.

Still, Ukrainian media have been reporting on the likelihood of a critical EP resolution next week, focused on the Tymoshenko case and possibly suggesting a boycott of the upcoming Euro 2012 soccer championships. According to Interfax-Ukraine [link in Russian], the conservatives in the European Parliament have been put in charge of drafting a resolution, which is expected to be “tough.” The debate will take place on 22 may and the vote the following day.

3. Climate change a growing threat to Mongolia’s herders

Climate change is transforming Mongolia’s fertile grasslands into barren dustbowls, which could dramatically change the way of life for nomadic herders who make up half the country’s population. Mongolia is warming faster than almost anywhere on Earth, and up to 70 percent of the country is at risk of desertification, according to Public Radio International. That means herders are having a harder time finding water sources or suitable grazing fields for their livestock and may have to abandon these areas – and their way of life – for cities.

A dust cloud rolls across the Gobi Desert in late April. Satellite photo by NASA.

”almost every Mongolian can feel the impact of climate change in their daily lives,” an environment adviser to Mongolia’s president told PRI. Ecologist Clyde Goulden has spent the last several years studying how the country’s nomadic herders have been affected by changes in climate. The herders’ observations provide a wealth of information in a country with few climate records or studies on the health of its grasslands.

The biggest change herders have noticed is an increase in extreme and unpredictable weather, which can make planning for winter impossible and leave livestock vulnerable to freezing. they also complain of rain that comes in short bursts that don’t provide enough moisture to sustain the soil and grass. ”If the grass is not growing well, then what will the animals eat? If the animals die, what’s the future for us?” one told PRI.

4. Superhero to Astana’s rescue!

Kazakhstan has launched a design competition for a superhero that should represent the country’s spirit. According to Radio Free Europe, the contest is part of the Astana International Action Film Festival in July and requires that the superhero bear the name of the capital, Astana, and that he or she embody the best traits of the Kazakh people.

The year 2012 marks 15 years since the Kazakh capital was moved from Almaty to Astana, a city previously called Akmola whose new name translates as “capital” in Kazakh. A press release from the film festival says Astana’s superhero namesake “should become a symbol of a young, energetic, and dynamically developed capital of Kazakhstan.”

The 123 announced entrants, including 37 from Kazakhstan as well as people from China, Japan, and Korea, will have a day to deliver their work in one of the four formats available: animation, comics, costumes, and video.

In 2006, the release of the mockumentary Borat!: Cultural Learnings of America for make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan created an enormous controversy for its biting depiction of the Central Asian country. Although Kazakh officials ultimately appreciated the media buzz that surrounded the story, the current competition might finally offer a home-grown hero to overshadow Borat.

5. More Hungarians want to close door to asylum seekers

Hungarians increasingly oppose letting asylum seekers into their country, according to a new poll released by the Tarki Social Research Institute. The survey found that the number of Hungarians opposed to accepting any asylum seekers has jumped from around 30 percent to 40 percent since 2007. only 49 percent said asylum cases should be treated on a case-by-case basis, down from around 60 percent five years ago. Opposition to asylum was higher with certain demographics, including non-voters, the unemployed, supporters of the far-right Jobbik political party, those with less education, and Roma, according to Politics.hu.

Last month the UN strongly criticized Hungary’s 2010 asylum laws, which allow the government to lock up undocumented migrants, The associated Press reports. “No other country [in Central Europe] is taking such extreme and harsh measures as Hungary does, and in no other country do we hear so many similar reports of abuse in detention,” Gottfried Koefner, the UN refugee agency’s representative for Central Europe, told the AP.

Snooker: Moor to come in the hunt for Gold (From Lancashire Telegraph)

Discover The Fat, Week Ten: Join Us For A Look At The Week In Afl, Nrl And Super Rugby From A Unique Angle

admin — Sat, 19 May 2012 14:15:12 +0000

Last dance … Gary Ablett laments the Cats’ loss to the Pies in the 2010 prelim. Source: Michael Dodge / Herald Sun

the working week is done and it's time to start thinking about the important things in life; sport, the punt, and a good laugh.

You can Thank Fox It’s Friday and join us for the fat, a look at sport from a rather different angle.

Every Friday we have the pick of the pigskins for you to get ready for the weekend.

Our experts (a bunch of blokes who watch sport for a crust) across AFL, NRL and Super Rugby come together to deliver the fat. clearly we’re going to need your help.

If you’ve got a wager better than our efforts or a joke that tops this week’s sidesplitters, send them in now.

Enjoy the fat and, more importantly, enjoy your weekend. You’ve earned it.

FOX SPORTS FIVERSGot $5 to spare? why not turn it into a few more bucks with our helpful betting advice. We’ll track the bank for the year.

AFL (Running total: +$35): Last week was a shocker but we’ve been given a leg up and are back on the horse. this round it’s GWS to get within 26.5 points of Brisbane, Essendon to win by 1-39 and the Dockers to cover the +24.5-line against Hawthorn down in Tassie. That’s $9.92 with sportsbet.com.au. Free money.

NRL (Running total: -$16): the Origin period tends to bring the punter back to the field every year because no one knows what’s going to happen and upsets are aplenty. the flipside of that for a shrewd hunter is there’s often plenty of value to be had in head-to-head betting and even juicier odds than normal for the margins. call us greedy, but on the search for a surplus for the first time this year we’re going the margin double. the Cowboys have lost their prize cattle to Origin but should still have too much for Penrith at home at 1-12. Throw that in with the Warriors to continue their rise up the ladder at Leichhardt Oval against a Tigers outfit without Robbie Farah in another close one (1-12). at a price of $11.05 at TAB Sportsbet it should make a juicy little earner.

Super Rugby (Running total: +19): After getting the business done for the second week running, we’d be stupid to sway from our head-to-head betting. these games could go either way but we reckon think the Canes should edge the Brumbies, the Highlanders will bounce back against the Bulls and the Cheetahs will upset the Sharks at fortress Bloemfontein. Our good mates at sportsbet.com.au will give you the tidy odds of $6.14 for that three-legger.

why Prince Philip?… why not? Source: AAP

SNAP OF THE WEEKLord knows why this Manchester City fan decided to turn up for last weekend’s Premier League finale with a Prince Philip mask on, but if it was his lucky charm it worked.

REMEMBER WHENCome with us for a trip down memory lane.

AFL: Remember when the Magpies supposedly brought down the Geelong empire in the 2010 preliminary final? the Cats looked old and jaded on their way to a 41-point thumping, which ultimately led to the departure of two-time premiership coach Mark Thompson. it was also the last time Gary Ablett pulled on the hoops. Twenty months later the wheel has turned full circle and many believe the Pies have an opportunity to close the book on Geelong’s dominant era. We’re not so sure.

NRL: State of Origin is a great equaliser for NRL clubs and this time every year, the teams with high representation in the new South Wales and Queensland sides name teams that are barely recognisable, even to their own fans. Over the years, the Brisbane Broncos have often been hit hardest and last year was no exception, forcing Brisbane to field their latest ‘Baby Broncos’ outfit when five players were in camp for their clash with Canberra Raiders at Suncorp Stadium. despite their youth, the Baby Broncos got away to a flyer, leaving the Raiders in their wake as they crossed for four tries to lead 24-0. but showing their inexperience, the kids dropped their guard and the Green Machine came storming back, locking the scores at 24 when the full-time siren sounded. but not to be denied, the Baby Broncos picked themselves off the canvas and got over the line in golden point, with NSW State of Origin discard Peter Wallace ironically slotting the winning field goal.

Super Rugby: It’s certainly been a long while between drinks for the Brumbies in Wellington. the last time the Canberra-based franchise tasted victory at the Caketin was way back in 2003 when George Gregan’s favourite coach, David Nucifora, was at the helm. despite trailing 17-10 at half-time, the Brumbies stormed home in the second half to snatch a 35-27 victory and keep their semi-final hopes alive. Winger Mark Gerrard, who now plies his trade at Melbourne Rebels, bagged a double.

FANTASY ADVICEGet your teams sorted for the weekend and make sure you get your tips in, too.

AFL: Perhaps we should take a moment to collectively curse Giants coach Kevin Sheedy. For some reason, the wily old GWS mentor decided that a winnable game against Brisbane Lions was the time to rest a few of his young guns. Tom Bugg ($335,600), Dylan Shiel ($308,200) and Devon Smith ($269,200) are all popular FOX FOOTY SuperCoach picks and will miss this weekend’s action, leaving plenty of coaches in with the prospect of a doughnut or two. we reckon it’s probably time to cash in on Bugg and Shiel by trading them out, while Smith has some more money to make. Consider trading down for Dockers defender Lee Spur ($116,700) with Bugg and jumping on emerging Giant Taylor Adams ($210,000) as a midfield replacement for Shiel.

NRL: There’s always plenty of fresh faces to choose from when the Origin period comes around but there’s not a whole lot of value in taking a cheap pick-up if he’s going to be out the door again the next week. but of the young guns arriving mid-season, a genuine keeper is Tautau Moga. the highly touted outside back was kept on the sidelines for the early part of the season due to injury but the Sydney Roosters powerhouse made an excellent debut against the Warriors last week, crossing the line for his first try. at $70,000, Moga’s still an excellent bargain but now’s the time to jump on because he’s likely to cement a spot in first grade and his value will skyrocket.

Super Rugby: While we’re tempted to throw Quade Cooper straight back into Fantasy action, we think Digby Ioane could be the one who racks up the points on Saturday night. the Reds winger has been a little quiet this season – admittedly he wasn’t helped by a ridiculous five-game suspension – but with Quade back throwing those monster 30-metre passes, we think Diggers might be a special for a hat-trick.

JOKE OF THE WEEKTwo friends, John and Dave, were two huge baseball fans. their entire lives, John and Dave talked baseball.

They went to 60 games a year. They even agreed that whoever died first would try to come back and tell the other if there was baseball in heaven.

One night, John passed away in his sleep after watching the Yankees victory earlier in the evening. he died happy.

A few nights later, his buddy Dave awoke to the sound of John’s voice from beyond.

"John is that you?" Dave asked.

"Yes, it’s me," John replied.

"this is unbelievable" Dave exclaimed. " so tell me, is there baseball in heaven?"

"well I have some good news and some bad news for you. which do you want to hear first?"

"Tell me the good news first."

"well, the good news is that yes there is baseball in heaven."

"oh, that is wonderful, so what is the bad news?"

"You’re pitching tomorrow night."

Is the fat missing something? Have you got a helpful hint? Drop us an email now.

audition, Charlotte and Jonathan were put in at 4/1 with Stan James to win BGT, but after they smashed the semi-final the opera-singing duo are now best-priced at even-money (bet £10 to make £10 profit) with Paddy Power and generally odds-on at 10/11 to scoop the £500,000 prize. Jonathan is an unbelievably good singer and he is still just a teenager, but he is humble and sure to pull in the votes. The only question is whether they will benefit from the ‘pimp slot’ at the end of the show, and Paddy Power are clearly taking a big risk by opposing the pair.That said, I can see plenty of reasons to oppose the favourites on Saturday. six of the ten confirmed acts are singers, so the vote could split up, and a win in this is not necessarily a springboard to success – as last year’s winner Jai McDowall will testify (who?!). furthermore, Susan Boyle was beaten at odds of 1/7 in series three and then Ronan Parke was turned over at ludicrous odds of 1/10 last year, so upsets can and do happen. with so many variables, not least the wildcard act, it is hard to really have confidence on a bet on Charlotte and Jonathan. they are at 1/7 with Sky Bet to make the top three.The second favourites on Saturday is the adorable dancing dog act – Ashleigh and Pudsey. Having been on offer at 10/1 following their audition, they are now being backed to win BGT and upstage Charlotte and Jonathan. Ashleigh and Pudsey won a really hot semi-final, and despite not mixing up the routine from the auditions, the styling was clever and it went down a storm with voters. On Friday Ashleigh and Pudsey were well-supported from 5/2 into 2/1 with Boylesports, suggesting they could get a helping hand from producers, but they are not overly marketable. However Cowell has made no secret that he is a sucker for a dancing dog act, so it would be no surprise to see Ashleigh and Pudsey win. as a warning to punters though, a similar act, Tina and Chandi, only received 9% of the vote two years ago…. but Ashleigh and Pudsey are undoubtedly more likable and cute. Beating The Mend and then the pimped-up Only Boys Aloud in the semi is pretty solid from the penultimate slot. Then it is Ryan O’Shaughnessy who is at 10/1 with Boylesports to win BGT, although perhaps significantly he is as short as 5/1 with Paddy Power. Ryan failed to make the cut in The Voice of Ireland, but he has been released from his contract and is an extremely likeable chap. Ryan was available at 33/1 with Bodog prior to the final semi-final on Thursday, but that should not put punters off backing him just because he is shorter – no, the 10/1 looks pretty reasonable as Simon has since been showering him with praise and he even got the pimp slot in the fifth semi-final. Simon appears to relish competition with rival talent shows and it would not be a surprise to me if Ryan gets a juicy slot on Saturday. He is a player in my book and cannot be underestimated. On paper, Ryan’s closest rival for the top three is Loveable Rogues, who beat Molly Rainford (66/1 to win the final) and Twist And Pulse Dance Company in the third semi-final from a mediocre slot in the running order. The three lads have entertained us with their song about pork pies and other BRITISH things, and it is a positive that they have almost 30,000 ‘likes’ on Facebook. they could be decent value at 5/4 with Boylesports for a top three finish, and Ladbrokes are definitely fans, offering just 6/4 that they have a number one hit in 2012.Only Boys Aloud needed the judges to send them through despite getting a pimp slot in the semi, so they can be ruled out at 28/1 with bet365. they will be delighted to be on the tour though, and the same applies to fellow Welsh finalists 150/1 Nu Sxool, who have done brilliantly to make it here. Sam Kelly is at 66/1 to win BGT with Ladbrokes, but he looks a cut below Ryan and can be ruled out for win purposes. Aquabatique and Kai And Natalia are both 100/1 or bigger and will be candidates to get the first slot (aka graveyard slot). The wildcard entry is likely to struggle (40/1 with Bet Victor, and will either be TPDC, The Mend or Be Minor – or at least we reckon. hopefully we have seen the last of Dennis Egel!The BGT Final begins at 7.30pm on Saturday 12 May and is live on ITV1.

Compare Britain`s got Talent odds

Read BGT Reviews, Previews and Press Releases

he sang his own song, penned about his love interest, which immediately earned him a quote of 14/1 with Coral to win the competition. the Irishman is now 33/1 with Bodog to win the competition, but often with these acts they just need to appear in the final to launch their careers, which was the case with last year’s beaten favourite Ronan Parke. On Betfair last month Ryan traded at 99/1 to win the competition when his participation was in doubt, but he has gone from 30,000 followers on Twitter to almost 60,000 since the auditions, and he is likely to pull in thousands of votes, even if he does get lumped with an early slot (unlikely). I rarely bet at odds-on, but the 1/2 that he makes it through looks pretty good to me, as I think he is much more marketable than Malakai Paul, who in turn was a 1/5 shot to progress last night. The other act in with a shout of winning the public vote is Hope Murphy, although she is out to 15/8 with Paddy Power from 13/8. With Sam Kelly through, the only female singer in Saturday’s final is 11-year-old Molly Rainford, but whilst Hope has a tremendous VOICE, it is hard to really make a case for her. Could she be pimped up at the expense of Ryan? I am struggling to picture it, and I think there is a much greater chance that the producers go all-out on another act to try and get a bit for VARIETY into the final (Sorry for the caps, just seems that these are the buzzwords at the moment).Aquabatique are interesting at 2/1 with bet365 to make the final, especially if the VT goes all ‘Olympics’ (if you’ve seen their audition, you’ll know what I mean). the synchronised swimmers may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but they bring something different to the table (or rather, pool), although they are not as exciting as 2010 winner Spelbound. Yep, this is a weak semi-final, but 2/1 to qualify does not really appeal to me when I was able to get 4/1 on Nu Sxool to go through just yesterday. Another negative is that their act poses serious logistical problems if they were to make it onto the tour, think about all that water!Face Team are at 14/1 with Stan James, but I do not expect their basketball skills to really get people voting, even if the final is shaping up to be a pretty ‘static’ one in terms of what the acts actually do. bet365 punters like the look of Billy George, who is 16/1 to win the semi and 8/1 from 14/1 to qualify. To me though, he is boring and I would take Aquabatique over the wheel man. Strictly Wheels got a pimp slot for their audition, but their odds of 12/1 to qualify are probably about right. Lazor Harp is a bloke playing the tetris theme on some sort of, you guessed it, laser harp, but even the geek vote won’t be enough at 33/1 to qualify. Finally Callum Oakley, a comedian, is 13/2 with bet365 to qualify, which gives him a better shot than 28/1 no-hoper Martyn Crofts, a Dalek impersonator. In the previous two semis the bets really jumped off the page, but here I will be keeping my stakes low and will have an unoriginal bet on Ryan to win. There are just too many question marks surrounding the other acts in my opinion.

BGT begins at 7.30pm on Thursday 10 May and the results show follows at 9.30pm. be sure to check back on Saturday for our preview of the grand finale.

Compare Britain`s Got Talent odds

Read BGT Reviews, Previews and Press Releases